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HighResMIP models improve detection of intense cyclones over southeast South America
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DOI：10.1007/s00382-026-08255-4.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
Extratropical cyclones play a critical role in midlatitude climate dynamics, but their accurate simulation remains a challenge in climate models. While enhanced resolution simulations have been widely used to study these systems in the Northern Hemisphere, their performance in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly for intense cyclones, remains less explored. This study evaluates the impact of increased horizontal resolution on the simulation of extratropical cyclones over a key hotspot in southeastern South America, comparing HighResMIP models (25–50 km) with standard CMIP6 models (100–250 km). Using an objective feature-tracking algorithm applied to T42 vorticity at 850 hPa, we analyze spatial and frequency distributions, structure, and life cycle of extratropical cyclones, comparing against ERA5 reanalysis. Results show that finer resolution models reduce biases in cyclone number and track density, significantly improving the detection of intense cyclones, whereas coarser resolution models underestimate their frequency by more than 50%. The higher resolution models also better capture peak cyclone intensity, while their lower resolution counterparts fail to identify extreme events. Additionally, increased resolution enhanced the representation of cyclone structure and evolution, particularly in terms of maximum vorticity and wind speed. However, both model groups struggle to simulate precipitation patterns, underscoring persistent challenges in cyclone-related moist processes. These findings highlight the advantages of higher resolution models in representing extreme cyclones and provide a foundation for improved climate projections under future warming scenarios.
Keywords:
HighResMIP
Intense extratropical cyclones
High-resolution models
Southeast South America
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