How effectively can climatic and morphological parameters predict urban microclimate in hot semi-arid residential neighbourhoods? A validated regression-based approach

2026-06-03

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Archana Singh *

Tarush Chandra

Sanjay Mathur

Jyotirmay Mathur

DOI：10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102979

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• VAR outperforms FAR in predicting summer air temperature in hot semi-arid neighbourhoods. • Areas with ISF exceeding 55% within a 50 m radius show elevated summer air temperature. • SVF is a stronger predictor of air temperature than aspect ratio. • E–W streets with varied building heights offer better outdoor thermal comfort year-round. • Bootstrap resampling confirms RefTa and SVF as stable Ta predictors across both seasons. • Leave-one-LCZ-out cross-validation (k = 11) confirms spatial generalisability of the summer Ta model.

Keywords:

Outdoor thermal comfort (OTC)

Morphological parameters

Residential Neighbourhood

Multiple linear regression (MLR)

Thermal environment

How effectively can climatic and morphological parameters predict urban microclimate in hot semi-arid residential neighbourhoods? A validated regression-based approach

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