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How Frequent Will the Rarest Daily Rainfall Records of Hurricane Ida's Remnants Be in the Future?
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DOI：10.1175/JHM-D-25-0088.1.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
Gaining continued insights into the impact of global warming on the occurrence of hurricane-associated intense record downpours is essential for building climate resilient communities. This study investigates projected future changes in extreme rainfall over the Northeast United States, as represented by extreme daily amounts during Hurricane Ida in 2021. We used historical control simulations of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model generated from 40 years of weather events (1980-2014, 12 km) forced by the fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis. These simulations are thermodynamically modified (2060-2100) via an imposed warming for the high-emission scenario of shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP585) from a range of general circulation models. Ground observations from the Global Historical Climatology Network (1950-2014) and WRF simulations (historical, 1980-2014, and future, 2060-2100) are integrated into a nonstationary generalized extreme value (GEV) framework to assess the frequency of Ida's heaviest daily rain rates under the SSP585 scenario. Results show that Ida's daily maximum rainfall recorded at different observation locations was higher than the single highest September daily maximum observed (1950-2014) for 5 out of 17 stations (;30% of the stations). Ida-like extreme daily rain rates are projected to be, on average, more than 2 times more likely to occur at the end of the century in the simulations (with some regions as high as 5 times). This work demonstrates that integrating a high-resolution atmospheric model's present-day and thermodynamically modified future simulations along with ground observations, within a nonstationary statistical framework, is crucial for understanding changing characteristics of extreme weather events.
Keywords:
Nonstationarity
Climate attribution
Risk assessment
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