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How policy adoption patterns shape policy outcomes: evidence from China's River Chief System
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DOI：10.1080/17516234.2026.2631420.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
A large body of research examines why and how innovative policies are adopted, but information on how the different patterns of policy adoption translate into different policy outcomes remains scarce. To address this gap, we used the case of China's River Chief System to examine how different adoption choices made by local governments shaped subsequent policy outcomes and identify the key factors underlying these variations. Drawing on data from 273 Chinese prefecture-level cities from 2008 to 2023, we conducted a comparative quantitative analysis of a proactive adoption, pilot-experiment adoption, and directive-execution adoption. The results show that pilot-experiment adoption produced the strongest improvements, proactive adoption yielded moderate performance benefits, and directive-execution adoption resulted in the weakest outcomes, shaped respectively by issue salience, promotion incentives, and hierarchical administrative accountability. These findings revealed that policy outcome in centralized governance systems is structured by an underlying equilibrium between central authority and local autonomy. Building on this insight, the study contributes to policy diffusion research by linking adoption patterns to post-adoption outcomes and clarifying the institutional logic through which diffusion influences governance effectiveness.
Keywords:
Policy diffusion
policy outcome
River Chief System
public policy
Journal
J
IF:
1.1
Papers:
43
Citations:
0