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Inference in ensemble experiments
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DOI：10.1098/rsta.2007.2071.png)
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Abstract
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We consider inference based on ensembles of climate model evaluations, and contrast the Monte Carlo approach, in which the evaluations are selected at random from the model-input space, with a more overtly statistical approach using emulators and experimental design.
Keywords:
Monte Carlo ensemble
designed ensemble
uncertainty
importance sampling
emulator
screening
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