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Integrated Power Sector Decarbonization Pathways in Indonesia: System-Level Assessment of Green Hydrogen, Carbon Pricing and Multi-Energy Transition toward 2050
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DOI：10.1093/ce/zkag037.png)
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Abstract
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Indonesia’s second nationally determined contribution (NDC) increases ambition for greenhouse gas mitigation and places the electricity sector at the core of the pathway toward net-zero emissions) by 2060 or sooner. Achieving this target requires more than renewable energy expansion and depends on policy and technology choices that preserve system reliability and economic feasibility. This research applies the Low Emissions Analysis Platform to assess Indonesia’s power sector transition from 2025 to 2050, focusing on green hydrogen, carbon pricing, and firm low-carbon supply. Five scenarios are examined: a reference baseline, carbon pricing, green hydrogen integration, a nuclear-enabled pathway, and an NDC-aligned pathway targeting a 55.0% renewable energy share by 2050 with coal phase-down. The results show that single instruments deliver limited outcomes. Carbon pricing reduces emissions by 60.6%, while hydrogen improves system flexibility and renewable integration but still leaves substantial residual emissions by 2050. Net-zero emissions are achieved only under integrated pathways that combine carbon pricing, large-scale renewables, green hydrogen, nuclear power, and coal phase-down, reaching up to 99.8% emissions reductions by 2050. These pathways require higher investment, with cumulative capital needs reaching USD 774.9 billion. The analytical framework can be applied to other coal-dominated emerging economies designing NDC-aligned power sector transition strategies.
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