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Integrated scenario analysis under energy; water and decarbonization stress: the case of Rwanda
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DOI：10.3389/frwa.2026.1900266.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
Compounding crises increasingly expose hidden fragilities in socio-technical systems. At the same time; they generate political momentum and practical urgency for institutional and governance innovation; as emergency measures often become prototypes for routine practice. This paper develops a national-scale; multi-sector water-energy-emissions (WEE) scenario model for Rwanda and uses it to test how demand growth; hydrological stress; and supply-side choices jointly shape future energy security and emissions trajectories through 2050. Water enters the framework in two directions: as a determinant of energy supply; through the translation of river-discharge seasonality and drought stress into monthly hydropower availability; and as a consumer of energy; through the electricity required to supply; distribute; and treat water and wastewater. The analysis shows that; under SSP2 and especially SSP5 growth conditions; emissions remain strongly demand-driven; therefore; even ambitious demand-side and supply-side measures are best interpreted as pathways that moderate; rather than fully reverse; emissions growth. A scenario decomposition further indicates that demand-side energy efficiency is the single most influential lever; while supply-side measures primarily reshape the electricity mix and system resilience rather than aggregate emissions. The contribution of the study is to identify which combinations of efficiency; electrification; renewable deployment; thermal retirement; water-service efficiency; and hydrological risk management most effectively reduce system stress and improve resilience under compound crises.
Keywords:
Rwanda
droughts
hydropower
energy system resilience
LEAP
multi-crisis scenario analysis
water-energy-emissions nexus
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2.8
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360
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2.1K
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