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Learning About One's Self
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DOI：10.1093/jeea/jvac012.png)
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Abstract
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To understand why naivete about present-biased behavior is so prevalent and persistent, our experiment investigates how well participants learn from their past behavior in a real-effort task. While participants display naive present-biased behavior initially, our novel methodology allows us to establish that their updating is unbiased and would eliminate naivete in the long run. Moreover, learning is unencumbered by a change in the environment. Our results suggest that persistent naivete does not result from a fundamental inferential bias. However, participants underestimate their future learning-a bias that may lead to underinvestment in experimentation and a failure to activate self-regulation mechanisms.
Keywords:
CORRELATION NEGLECT
INFORMATION
PROCRASTINATION
DEADLINES
BIAS
OVERCONFIDENCE
PERFORMANCE
CONTRACT
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