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Long term dynamic avalanche modelling under climate change scenarios: A case study in the Italian Alps
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DOI：10.1016/j.coldregions.2026.104968.png)
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Abstract
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• Poli-Aval-2D provides a reliable and versatile tool for simulating avalanche dynamics across various magnitudes and frequencies, supporting effective hazard assessment and mitigation. • The model integrates key physical processes such as snow cover erosion and entrainment, improving volume prediction accuracy critical for hazard mapping and protective structure design. • Coupling Poli-Aval-2D with downscaled climate projections enables exploration of future avalanche scenarios under climate change, offering a computationally efficient approach to long-term forecasting. • Future developments should focus on enhancing model calibration and real-time parameter adaptation using observed snow and weather data to improve simulation robustness and forecasting accuracy.
Keywords:
Avalanche dynamics
Climate change
Hazard assessment
Model simulation
Snow cover erosion
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