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Managers’ Understanding of Macroeconomic News, Competitor Influence, and Firm Performance: Evidence from Consumer Sentiment News
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DOI：10.1016/j.jacceco.2026.101906.png)
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Abstract
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This paper examines the association between managers’ failure to incorporate macroeconomic news and firm performance, focusing on the role of competitors. Measuring this failure using the extent to which management revenue forecast errors reflect U.S. consumer sentiment, we find an asymmetric association. When firms underestimate consumer demand and underproduce, failing to incorporate consumer sentiment news is associated with worse performance, but when they overestimate demand and overproduce, no association exists. These results are consistent with competitors reacting differently to underproduction and overproduction, worsening firm performance in the case of underproduction but not necessarily in overproduction. Cross-sectional analyses reveal that the negative association is mainly present when U.S. consumer sentiment is important and strategic interactions are stronger, such as in markets with higher product similarity. Overall, our findings suggest that the performance consequences of forecast errors due to failure to understand macroeconomic information are nuanced and depend on competitors’ strategic actions.
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