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Matching Decision Attributes to Methods: A Structured Framework for Selecting DMDU Approaches in Environmental Water Management
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DOI：10.1002/wat2.70045.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
Freshwater ecosystem management is becoming increasingly complex due to diverse threats, amplified by climate change, which introduces significant uncertainty in future flow regimes, affecting water availability, timing, and variability. This uncertainty represents a challenge for decision makers charged with managing freshwater ecosystems through environmental flows. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) approaches provide a possible way forward by supporting flexible and adaptive planning that helps design robust plans that perform reasonably well under a wide range of plausible futures. A broad variety of DMDU approaches exist, each suited to specific decision contexts; however, guidance is lacking on selecting the most appropriate approach. This paper presents a structured framework to guide the selection of the most appropriate DMDU method for different environmental water decisions. It outlines the suite of decisions within environmental water management and aligns their attributes with the characteristics of different DMDU approaches. This framework helps decision-makers to start thinking in a more structured way, considering the nature of the decisions: including their strategic level, potential for lock-in, and inherent risks such as disastrous consequences, maladaptation, and conflict generation. Clarity around the most appropriate methods and tools to align with different aspects of environmental water management will help in ensuring robust environmental outcomes into the future. This article is categorized under: Water and Life > Stresses and Pressures on Ecosystems Water and Life > Conservation, Management, and Awareness Science of Water > Water and Environmental Change
Keywords:
decision making
deep uncertainty
environmental flows
environmental water management
robustness
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