Mortality risk attributable to wildfire-related PM2•5 pollution: a global time series study in 749 locations

Background Many regions of the world are now facing more frequent and unprecedentedly large wildfires. However, the association between wildfire-related PM2 center dot 5 and mortality has not been well characterised. We aimed to comprehensively assess the association between short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2 center dot 5 and mortality across various regions of the world. Methods For this time series study, data on daily counts of deaths for all causes, cardiovascular causes, and respiratory causes were collected from 749 cities in 43 countries and regions during 2000-16. Daily concentrations of wildfire-related PM2 center dot 5 were estimated using the three-dimensional chemical transport model GEOS-Chem at a 0 center dot 25 degrees x 0 center dot 25 degrees resolution. The association between wildfire-related PM2 center dot 5 exposure and mortality was examined using a quasi-Poisson time series model in each city considering both the current-day and lag effects, and the effect estimates were then pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis. Based on these pooled effect estimates, the population attributable fraction and relative risk (RR) of annual mortality due to acute wildfire-related PM2 center dot 5 exposure was calculated. Findings 65 center dot 6 million all-cause deaths, 15 center dot 1 million cardiovascular deaths, and 6 center dot 8 million respiratory deaths were included in our analyses. The pooled RRs of mortality associated with each 10 mu g/m(3) increase in the 3-day moving average (lag 0-2 days) of wildfire-related PM2 center dot 5 exposure were 1 center dot 019 (95% CI 1 center dot 016-1 center dot 022) for all-cause mortality, 1 center dot 017 (1 center dot 012-1 center dot 021) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1 center dot 019 (1 center dot 013-1 center dot 025) for respiratory mortality. Overall, 0 center dot 62% (95% CI 0 center dot 48-0 center dot 75) of all-cause deaths, 0 center dot 55% (0 center dot 43-0 center dot 67) of cardiovascular deaths, and 0 center dot 64% (0 center dot 50-0 center dot 78) of respiratory deaths were annually attributable to the acute impacts of wildfire-related PM2 center dot 5 exposure during the study period. Interpretation Short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2 center dot 5 was associated with increased risk of mortality. Urgent action is needed to reduce health risks from the increasing wildfires. Copyright (c) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license.

Keywords:

EMERGENCY HOSPITAL VISITS

AIR-POLLUTION

PARTICULATE MATTER

HEALTH IMPACTS

AMBIENT PM2.5

SMOKE

EXPOSURE

CHINA

METAANALYSIS

ADMISSIONS

Mortality risk attributable to wildfire-related PM2•5 pollution: a global time series study in 749 locations

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