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Multiday Precipitation Extremes are Projected to Become Less Likely in Southern Pakistan
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DOI：10.1175/JHM-D-25-0032.1.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
South Asia is highly susceptible to the impacts of hydroclimatic extremes, with unusual monsoon precipitation heightening the risk of severe flooding in arid coastal regions. This study investigates the rainfall characteristics of the unprecedented multiday wet spell of 2022 in southern Pakistan, particularly in the Sindh and Balochistan Provinces. Additionally, the study examines how future climate scenarios may alter the frequency of multiday extreme monsoon precipitation in this data-scarce region. To investigate the changing risk of 2022-like accumulated rainfall from the historical context of monsoon rainfall [June-August (JJA)], this study applies generalized extreme value (GEV) models to the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) (IMERG; 2000-23) and a bias-corrected and statistically downscaled 30-member ensemble of the Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research (SPEAR) historical (1990-2014) and future simulations (2070-2100) under two emission scenarios [Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5]. The 2022 maximum 5-day accumulated rainfall was unusually intense in southwestern Balochistan, with a standardized precipitation index (SPI) above 12. SPEAR ensemble projections suggest a reduced future risk relative to the historical baseline. Regionally, the probability of a 2022-like event may decline to 22% of the historical likelihood under the highest emission scenario SSP5-8.5. While large member single climate model simulations show consistency in trends, a multimodel analysis is essential to better support adaptation and mitigation measures and to understand the region's highly variable monsoon rainfall.
Keywords:
Climate change
Hydrology
Remote sensing
Risk assessment
Trends
Extreme events
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