.png){kind=icon}
Return
Narrative forecasts
.png){kind=icon}
PRE
AI
DOI：10.1016/j.joep.2026.102918.png)
.png){kind=icon}
Original request for help.png){kind=icon}
Share.png){kind=icon}
Save
Abstract
En 中文
We propose a novel methodology to identify managerial beliefs from earnings call transcripts, using lexicon-based and FinBERT sentiment analysis alongside machine-learning guided topic modeling. We provide a dual contribution to the literature. First, we find that managerial sentiment significantly predicts analyst forecast revisions, with presentation sentiment showing stronger associations than question and answer (Q&A) interactions. Second, we show that these sentiment-driven revisions lead to systematic forecast errors, suggesting that narrative content shapes analyst expectations beyond fundamental information. Our analysis offers a scalable alternative to traditional survey-based approaches for measuring economic beliefs, providing high-frequency and near-universal coverage across firms and time.
Keywords:
Managerial beliefs
Analyst forecasts
Sentiment analysis
Topic modeling
Journal
IF:
2.3
Papers:
82
Citations:
5.7K
Organization
Cited Papers
No cited papers available