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No man’s land? The effect of forced displacement on forest cover change in Colombia
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DOI：10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107441.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
• By combining computational text analysis of land restitution rulings with high-resolution satellite plot-level data, the study estimates the effect of displacement on deforestation with geographic and temporal precision. • On average, deforestation increased by 50 percent per year, compared to the baseline mean, in the plots following the displacement event. • Deforestation is most pronounced when displacement is caused by paramilitary groups, who often ally with local elites to exploit abandoned plots for economic gain. • Larger plots located farther from cities and areas with higher suitability for oil palm cultivation or near mining areas or coca plantations were more prone to experiencing deforestation after displacement. • We propose a theory of change to explain how forced displacement leads to deforestation, highlighting the role of economic motivations, regional and geographic characteristics, and weak institutional presence in driving forest cover change.
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