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Not gone with the wind: Long-run impact of herbicidal warfare in Vietnam
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DOI：10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107467.png)
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Abstract
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• We examine the legacies of herbicidal warfare during the Vietnam War on contemporary population outcomes at the hamlet level. • We exploit the archival military records of 9141 herbicide missions and use a regression kink design for causal identification. • A 10% increase in herbicide exposure is persistently associated with a decrease in population size of 1.88–2.51% in 2001 and 2.61–3.27% in 2020. • A 10% increase in herbicide exposure is also associated with a decrease in the population growth rate of 0.75 percentage points during 2001–2020. • A series of randomization inference, sensitivity analysis, and robustness checks lends further credibility to the causal claims.
Keywords:
Agent Orange
Armed conflict
Historical legacies
Population
Urbanization
Vietnam War
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