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ONLINE ESTIMATION WITH ROLLING VALIDATION: ADAPTIVE NONPARAMETRIC ESTIMATION WITH STREAMING DATA

delete2025-12-01
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PRE
AI
T
Tianyu Zhang *
J
Jing Lei
DOI:10.1214/25-AOS2561delete
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Abstract

Abstract

En 中文
Online nonparametric estimators are gaining popularity due to their efficient computation and competitive generalization abilities. An important example includes variants of stochastic gradient descent. These algorithms often take one sample point at a time and incrementally update the parameter estimate of interest. In this work, we consider model selection/hyperparameter tuning for such online algorithms. We propose a weighted rolling validation procedure, an online variant of leave-one-out cross-validation, that costs minimal extra computation for many typical stochastic gradient descent estimators and maintains their online nature. Similar to batch cross-validation, it can boost base estimators to achieve better heuristic performance and adaptive convergence rate. Our analysis is straightforward, relying mainly on some general statistical stability assumptions. The simulation study underscores the significance of diverging weights in practice and demonstrates its favorable sensitivity even when there is only a slim difference between candidate estimators.
Keywords:
Online learning
model selection
stochastic gradient descent

Journal

Annals of Statistics cover
Annals of Statistics
IF:
3.7
Papers:
2.8K
Citations:
2.9W

Organization

U
university of california santa barbara
Scholars:
357
Papers: 208
Citations: 0
University of California System cover
University of California System
Scholars:
37.5W
Papers: 33.7W
Citations: 6.6K