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Optimizing regional carbon peak pathways under uncertainty: An integrated Tapio-LMDI-robust optimization framework with evidence from Guangxi, China
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DOI：10.1016/j.ecmx.2026.102058.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
• Integrated Tapio-LMDI-RO framework addresses regional carbon planning gaps. • LMDI reveals energy intensity as dominant driver (−61.5% mitigation). • Monte Carlo quantifies peak uncertainty: 224–283 Mt CO (95% CI). • Solution C achieves 2030 target with 6.2% GDP growth, 1.2% GDP cost. • Preference-weighted framework converts Pareto solutions into policy guidance.
Keywords:
Carbon peak
Tapio decoupling
LMDI decomposition
Robust optimization
Uncertainty analysis
Regional decarbonization
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