.png){kind=icon}
.png){kind=icon}
Return
Order effects in judgmental forecasting
.png){kind=icon}
OA
AI
DOI：10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.01.007.png)
.png){kind=icon}
.png){kind=icon}
Share.png){kind=icon}
Save
Abstract
En 中文
In two experiments, forecasters produced a sequence of five forecasts from different types of time series, either from the nearest horizon to the most distant one (1, 2, 3, 4, 5) or in one of two other orders, both of which required the forecast for the most distant horizon to be made first ('end-anchoring'). These latter two orders differed in terms of the direction of the remaining forecasts: either a horizon-increasing order (1, 2, 3, 4) or a horizon-decreasing one (4, 3, 2, 1). End-anchoring improved the forecast accuracy, especially for more distant horizons, and resulted in the trajectory of the forecast sequence being closer to the optimal one. The direction of forecasting after end-anchoring affected the forecast quality only when the optimal trajectory of the forecast sequence displayed a strong nonlinearity. End-anchoring provides a simple means of enhancing judgmental forecasts when predictions for a number of horizons are being produced from each series. (C) 2015 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords:
Judgmental forecasting
Time series
Forecasting practice
Evaluating forecasts
Forecasting education
AI Summary
Key information extracted from the uploaded paper, including a brief overview, abstract, background, key highlights, visual analysis, and future outlook.
Journal
IF:
7.1
Papers:
3.1K
Citations:
9.9K