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Overwinter Warming Effects of Shrub Expansion in Arctic Permafrost Region
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DOI：10.1029/2026EF008573.png)
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Abstract
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Numerous studies have shown that shrub cover in high-latitude permafrost regions is increasing and the expansion is likely to continue in response to sustained temperature rise. However, knowledge gaps remain in how does the shrub expansion modulate the regional climate through large-scale land-atmosphere interactions. Based on synthesis of warming experiments at 42 sites, we found that shrub cover significantly increases by 30% in response to an average temperature rise of around 2°C over Arctic permafrost. With this expansion rate, we conducted coupled atmosphere-land simulations using the Community Earth System Model version 2.1 (CESM2.1) at a spatial resolution of 1.9 ° × ${}^{\circ}\,\times $ 2.5 ° ${}^{\circ}$ with monthly outputs to explore the climate feedbacks to the shrub expansion. Shrub expansion over Arctic permafrost results in widespread warming in Eurasia and northwestern North America (NA) during the non-growing season (October–April). The most pronounced warming occurs over December–February in Eurasia at an average of about 0.4°C. During the growing season, shrub expansion enhances surface net shortwave radiation by 0.20 Wm−2 and downwelling longwave radiation by 0.13 Wm−2 across the northern high latitudes, leading to a net positive surface energy anomaly, especially in boreal Eurasia. This enhances surface warming and perturbs atmospheric circulation, resulting in trans-seasonal effects. Strengthened westerlies promote the transport of atmospheric water vapor toward boreal Eurasia and northwestern NA, which dominates widespread warming by enhancing downwelling longwave radiation. The results highlight that interactions between shrubs and climate may contribute to enhanced warming and potentially influence permafrost stability in high-latitude regions.
Keywords:
Shrub expansion
Permafrost region
Climate feedbacks
Land-atmosphere interactions
Warming effects
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