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PARTIAL AMBIGUITY
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DOI：10.3982/ECTA13239.png)
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Abstract
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We extend Ellsberg's two-urn paradox and propose three symmetric forms of partial ambiguity by limiting the possible compositions in a deck of 100 red and black cards in three ways. Interval ambiguity involves a symmetric range of 50- n to 50+ n red cards. Complementarily, disjoint ambiguity arises from two nonintersecting intervals of 0 to n and 100 - n to 100 red cards. Two-point ambiguity involves n or 100 - n red cards. We investigate experimentally attitudes towards partial ambiguity and the corresponding compound lotteries in which the possible compositions are drawn with equal objective probabilities. This yields three key findings: distinct attitudes towards the three forms of partial ambiguity, significant association across attitudes towards partial ambiguity and compound risk, and source preference between two-point ambiguity and two-point compound risk. Our findings help discriminate among models of ambiguity in the literature.
Keywords:
Risk
ambiguity
Ellsberg paradox
experiment
Choquet expected utility
maxmin expected utility
recursive non-expected utility
source preference
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