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Path dependence and biases in the even swaps decision analysis method
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DOI：10.1016/j.ejor.2015.09.056.png)
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Abstract
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There are usually multiple paths that can be followed in a decision analysis process. It is possible that these different paths lead to different outcomes, i.e. there can exist path dependence. To demonstrate the phenomenon we show how path dependence emerges in the Even Swaps method. We also discuss the phenomenon in decision analysis in general. The Even Swaps process helps the decision maker to find the most preferred alternative out of a set of multi-attribute alternatives. In our experiment different paths are found to systematically lead to different choices in the Even Swaps process. This is explained by the accumulated effect of successive biased even swap tasks. The biases in these tasks are shown to be due to scale compatibility and loss aversion phenomena. Estimates of the magnitudes of these biases in the even swap tasks are provided. We suggest procedures to cancel out the effects of biases. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. and Association of European Operational Research Societies (EURO) within the International Federation of Operational Research Societies (IFORS). All rights reserved.
Keywords:
Behavioral Operational Research
Decision analysis
Path dependence
Biases
Trade-off
Scale compatibility
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