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Perceiving Prospects Properly
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DOI：10.1257/aer.20141141.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
When an agent chooses between prospects, noise in information processing generates an effect akin to the winner's curse. Statistically unbiased perception systematically overvalues the chosen action because it fails to account for the possibility that noise is responsible for making the preferred action appear to be optimal. The optimal perception pattern exhibits a key feature of prospect theory, namely, overweighting of small probability events (and corresponding underweighting of high probability events). This bias arises to correct for the winner's curse effect.
Keywords:
PROBABILITY WEIGHTING FUNCTIONS
RISK
REPRESENTATION
PREFERENCES
UNCERTAINTY
EVOLUTION
DECISION
BEHAVIOR
UTILITY
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