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Poleward Shift of Arctic Oceanic CO2 Uptake From Asymmetric Seasonal Changes Under Climate Warming
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DOI：10.1029/2025EF007550.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
The Arctic region plays a disproportionate role in the global carbon cycle by acting as a critical sink for atmospheric CO2. However, how Arctic air-sea CO2 fluxes will respond to continued warming regarding their spatial and temporal changes remains poorly understood. Here, using 14 CMIP6 Earth System Models, we find that Arctic CO2 uptake exhibits nonmonotonic trends over the 21st century, initially increasing and then declining, alongside a pronounced poleward shift in regions with high CO2 uptake. This shift is driven primarily by sea ice retreat and warming-induced rise in sea surface CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) that decreases air-sea pCO2 difference, which together lead to seasonally asymmetric changes in regional CO2 uptake. By the end of the 21st Century, the Polar Sea surpasses the Barents Sea and the Arctic Ocean exceeds the Nordic Seas in CO2 uptake. These findings indicate the importance of accurately simulating Arctic climate processes to assess future carbon-climate feedbacks and their implications for global climate mitigation.
Keywords:
Arctic ocean
CO2 flux
climate change
sea ice
climate projection
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