Precipitation-induced abrupt decrease of Siberian wildfire in summer 2022 under continued warming

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ad5573

Precipitation-induced abrupt decrease of Siberian wildfire in summer 2022 under continued warming

2024-06-21

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DOI：10.1088/1748-9326/ad5573

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Wildfires in Northeast (NE) Siberia have become more frequent owing to the warming climate, exerting a profound impact on the global carbon cycle. While an increase in global temperature is recognized as a primary driver of unprecedented wildfires, the role of precipitation during wildfire season is relatively unexplored. Here, we present evidence that an increase in summer precipitation led to a sudden decrease in NE Siberian wildfires, especially in 2022, notwithstanding the persistent warming trend in the northern high latitudes. The interannual variability of summer precipitation, linked to the large-scale atmospheric circulation, known as the Scandinavia (SCAND) pattern, significantly impacts the regulation of wildfires. Climate models project enhanced variability in summer precipitation, potentially amplifying year-to-year fluctuations in wildfire occurrences. The interplay between the temperature and precipitation patterns in NE Siberia under ongoing warming may increase the occurrence of extreme wildfires, leading to a substantial release of carbon and further contributing to climate warming.

Keywords:

wildfire

precipitation

large-scale atmospheric circulation

interannual variation

warming

Siberia

Precipitation-induced abrupt decrease of Siberian wildfire in summer 2022 under continued warming

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