Probabilistic prediction of asphalt pavement icing time using NGBoost: Factor analysis and model evaluation

Xingxing Zhou

doi:10.1016/j.coldregions.2026.104977

Probabilistic prediction of asphalt pavement icing time using NGBoost: Factor analysis and model evaluation

2026-05-06

0

PRE

AI

X

Xingxing Zhou

P

Peng Guo *

C

Chenguang Shi *

J

Junfeng Gao

G

Guoqiang Dou

H

He Zhang

DOI：10.1016/j.coldregions.2026.104977

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Abstract

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• Multi-factor icing tests quantified key controls on pavement icing time. • Ambient temperature, wind speed, and water film thickness dominated icing time. • NGBoost predicted icing time accurately with uncertainty intervals.

Keywords:

pavement icing

icing time

multi-factor analysis

NGBoost

probabilistic prediction

Probabilistic prediction of asphalt pavement icing time using NGBoost: Factor analysis and model evaluation

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