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Projected Future Changes of Ningaloo Nino under Global Warming
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DOI：10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0553.1.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
Ningaloo Ni & ntilde;o is an important climate mode in the southeast Indian Ocean with far-reaching impacts on the climate and marine environment, but how Ningaloo Ni & ntilde;o will change under global warming remains unclear. This study investigates the response of Ningaloo Ni & ntilde;o to global warming using the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble projections and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 model simulations. We find that the Ningaloo Ni & ntilde;o will have a stronger magnitude in the second half of the twenty-first century under the high greenhouse gas emission scenario, with nearly 60% of models showing a 1-month delay in its broadened seasonal peak. A mixed layer heat budget analysis indicates that the meridional advective feedback is the dominant driver for the Ningaloo Ni & ntilde;o changes, with additional contributions from changes in latent heat flux forcing. The strengthening of the Leeuwin Current during the Ningaloo Ni & ntilde;o events and the decrease in latent heat loss are closely associated with enhanced coastal Bjerknes feedback, with possible contributions from the wind-evaporation-SST feedback. Furthermore, given the amplification of El Ni & ntilde;o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the increase of specific humidity saturation under global warming, ENSO-related remote influences on the enhancement of Ningaloo Ni & ntilde;o activity need further investigation.
Keywords:
Indian Ocean
Atmosphere-ocean interaction
Climate
Climate variability
Trends
Journal
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4
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1.4W
Citations:
5.9W
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