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Ramp Event Directional Forecasting for Wind Power Integration: A Regime-Stratified Ensemble Framework with Direction-Focused Training
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DOI：10.3390/en19163794.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
Wind power ramp events (abrupt swings in output driven by frontal passages, sea-breeze transitions, and turbulence) are among the hardest problems for operators integrating renewables. Forecasting models are usually judged by aggregate error metrics (MAE, RMSE, overall directional accuracy) that average stable and ramp periods together, masking how a model behaves during the ramps that actually stress the grid. We address this on two fronts. First, we propose a regime-stratified evaluation that reports ramp event directional accuracy (ramp-DA) separately from stable-period accuracy and argue that ramp-DA should be a primary metric for grid-integration forecasting. Second, we build an ensemble of five regime-specialised sub-models trained with a direction-focused loss that penalises sign errors in the forecast power change, using only on-site SCADA wind speed and power. On 33,411 held-out samples from three onshore Greek farms, the ensemble reaches 76.5% ramp-DA, against 70.1% for a two-layer LSTM (+6.4 pp) and 74.3% and 74.1% for the PatchTST and iTransformer baselines. A strict leave-one-farm-out test retains 77.4% ramp-DA on a fully unseen farm. Overall directional accuracy rises 3.4 points, evidence that aggregate metrics understate the ramp-focused gain, while mean absolute error falls 19% compared to the LSTM (Diebold–Mariano p < 0.001).
Keywords:
wind power ramp events
ramp event directional accuracy
regime-stratified evaluation
direction-focused training
uncertainty quantification
SCADA
Greek wind farms
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