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Recurrent hyperinflations and learning
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DOI：10.1257/000282803322655400.png)
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Abstract
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We use a model of boundedly rational learning to account for the observations of recurrent hyperinflations, in the 1980's. In a standard monetary model we replace the assumption of full rational expectations by a formal definition of quasi-rational learning. The model under learning matches some crucial stylized facts observed during the recurrent hyperinflations experienced by several countries in the 1980's remarkably well. We argue that, despite being a small departure from rational expectations, quasi-rational learning does not preclude falsifiability of the model, it does not violate reasonable rationality requirements, and it can be used for policy evaluation.
Keywords:
SPECULATIVE HYPERINFLATIONS
EXCESS VOLATILITY
INFLATION
MODELS
PREDICTABILITY
SEIGNIORAGE
EQUILIBRIA
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