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Responses of precipitation extremes in the yellow river basin to solar radiation modification from GeoMIP6 multi-model ensembles
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DOI：10.1007/s00382-026-08344-4.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
The Yellow River Basin (YRB), which supports approximately 120 million people, is increasingly vulnerable to intensifying hydro-climatic extremes. While Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) has been proposed as a rapid intervention to mitigate global warming, its implications for regional hydrological processes remain largely unexplored, especially in topographically complex basins like the YRB. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of eight precipitation extreme indices across eight sub-basins of the YRB for the 2020–2099 period, using statistically downscaled multi-model simulations from GeoMIP6 under the SSP245, SSP585, G6solar, and G6sulfur scenarios. The results indicate that under SSP585, precipitation extremes intensify dramatically towards the end of the 21st century, with maximum 1-day precipitation increasing by 50–70%, and precipitation from very wet days more than doubling (100–120%) in vulnerable regions. In contrast, G6solar produces a relatively uniform mitigation effect, limiting the extreme increases to 10–30% across the basin, while G6sulfur induces pronounced spatial heterogeneity, generating a complex response pattern characterized by persistent intensification in the middle and lower basins. Both strategies consistently reduce the length of consecutive dry days by 5–15 days, indicating a transition toward more frequent, pulse-like precipitation events. This shift poses a dual challenge for the Loess Plateau, where the simultaneous reduction in meteorological drought duration and heightened rainfall erosivity exacerbates soil loss risks. Mechanistically, this contrast reflects strategy-dependent thermal forcing and regional circulation context: G6solar produces broader East Asian surface cooling and a tendency toward weaker monsoon-channel moisture transport, whereas G6sulfur produces stronger regional heterogeneity and a distinct lower-stratospheric warming signature.
Keywords:
Solar radiation modification
Precipitation extremes
Yellow river basin
GeoMIP6
Climate change
Climate intervention
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