.png){kind=icon}
.png){kind=icon}
Return
Sensitivity of Extreme Rainfall Simulation over the Yangtze River Delta Region
.png){kind=icon}
PRE
AI
Y
L
Y
Y
Z
C
B
L
DOI：10.1175/JHM-D-24-0029.1.png)
.png){kind=icon}
Original request for help.png){kind=icon}
Share.png){kind=icon}
Save
Abstract
En 中文
As global warming intensifies, accurate prediction of increasing extreme rainfall appears to be particularly important for local water management and flood-related policymaking. To investigate the sensitivity of the microphysics parameterization (MP) and cumulus parameterization (CP) in forecasting extreme rainfall, we applied the advanced model of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and predicted two typical extreme rainfall events over the Yangtze River delta (YRD) region based on twelve different scheme settings. The mei-yu (MY) and typhoon (TP) rainfall events were predicted in a convection-allowing resolution of 1 km. Compared with the daily rain gauge and hourly satellite-observed precipitation, the WRF simulation for the TP event generally outperformed that for the MY event at the hourly scale, with a lower comprehensive index of Chen, Chen, Hu, and Zhou (CCHZ)-distance between indices of simulation and observation (DISO) which indicates a lower bias between the WRF simulation and the observation data. As for the MY event, the WRF prediction was more sensitive to the MP scheme than the CP scheme, while it was sensitive to both schemes for the TP event. Among the 12 different scheme settings, the MP of the New Thompson scheme showed the best suitability for the two typical extreme rainfall events. Its combination with the Kain-Fritsch (KF) or Grell-Freitas (GF) scheme showed outstanding performance for both the MY and TP events since the KF/GF scheme takes explicit mass flux calculations of the cloud bottom and advanced convective triggering mechanisms, and the Thompson scheme does better in the ice-phase particle dynamics, hydrometeor distribution, and their transformation mechanisms. Our investigation can offer a scientific and valuable reference for the numerical prediction of extreme rainfall events over similar subtropical coastal regions.
Keywords:
Extreme events
Cloud microphysics
Cumulus clouds
Sensitivity studies
Journal
IF:
2.9
Papers:
2.9K
Citations:
1.1W
Organization
Cited Papers