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DOI：10.3982/ECTA10008.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
This paper develops a new theory of fluctuationsone that helps accommodate the notions of animal spirits and market sentiment in unique-equilibrium, rational-expectations, macroeconomic models. To this goal, we limit the communication that is embedded in a neoclassical economy by allowing trading to be random and decentralized. We then show that the business cycle may be driven by a certain type of extrinsic shocks which we call sentiments. These shocks formalize shifts in expectations of economic activity without shifts in the underlying preferences and technologies; they are akin to sunspots, but operate in unique-equilibrium models. We further show how communication may help propagate these shocks in a way that resembles the spread of fads and rumors and that gives rise to boom-and-bust phenomena. We finally illustrate the quantitative potential of our insights within a variant of the RBC model.
Keywords:
Business cycles
animal spirits
confidence
incomplete information
contagion
decentralization
higher-order beliefs
Journal
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7.1
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3.0K
Citations:
4.3W
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