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Snowfall Model Validation Using Surface Observations and an Optimal Estimation Snowfall Retrieval
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DOI：10.1175/WAF-D-20-0220.1.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
In the winter, orographic precipitation falls as snow in the mid- to high latitudes where it causes avalanches, affects local infrastructure, or leads to flooding during the spring thaw. We present a technique to validate operational numerical weather prediction model simulations in complex terrain. The presented verification technique uses a combined retrieval approach to obtain surface snowfall accumulation and vertical profiles of snow water at the Haukeliseter test site, Norway. Both surface observations and vertical profiles of snow are used to validate model simulations from the Norwegian Meteorological Institute's operational forecast system and two simulations with adjusted cloud microphysics. Retrieved surface snowfall is validated against measurements conducted with a double-fence automated reference gauge (DFAR). In comparison, the optimal estimation snowfall retrieval produces +10.9% more surface snowfall than the DFAR. The predicted surface snowfall from the operational forecast model and two additional simulations with microphysical adjustments (CTRL and ICE-T) are overestimated at the surface with +41.0%, +43.8%, and +59.2%, respectively. Simultaneously, the CTRL and ICE-T simulations underestimate the mean snow water path by -1071.4% and -523.7%, respectively. The study shows that we would reach false conclusions only using surface accumulation or vertical snow water content profiles. These results highlight the need to combine ground-based in situ and vertically profiling remote sensing instruments to identify biases in numerical weather prediction.
Keywords:
Snowfall
Radars
Radar observations
Cloud parameterizations
Numerical weather prediction/forecasting
Parameterization
Mountain meteorology
Cloud microphysics
Complex terrain
Forecasting techniques
Freezing precipitation
In situ atmospheric observations
Measurements
Model comparison
Precipitation
Remote sensing
Snow
Winter/cool season
Journal
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3.1
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2.9K
Citations:
7.9K