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Statistical models for earthquakes: A Bayesian analysis

delete2025-06-02
delete0
PRE
AI
M
M. O. Costa
S
Sérgio Luiz E. F. da Silva
R
R. Silva
G
George Sand França
C
C. S. Vilar
J
J. S. Alcaniz
DOI：10.1016/j.physa.2025.130678delete
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Abstract

Abstract

En 中文
The Gutenberg–Richter (GR) relation is an exponential law widely used for describing earthquakes’ statistical magnitude distributions. Using statistical physics approaches, we present robust models based on the Tsallis q- and Kaniadakis κ-entropies, aiming to capture the influence of irregular fragments occupying space between two tectonic plates with irregular surfaces. The proposed models are called q-GR and κ-GR laws, respectively. Using Bayesian statistical analysis, we examined a large dataset of over 450,000 seismic events recorded along the San Andreas Fault between 2000 and 2023. Our findings reveal that the q-GR and κ-GR models outperform the classical GR law. The results show the κ-GR model exhibits particularly strong empirical support, with optimal performance occurring when κ≈1.

Journal

P
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications
IF:
3.1
Papers:
1.3K
Citations:
3.6W

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No organization information available