Stress degradation modeling and reliability analysis of flight-vehicle folding wings based on Tweedie exponential dispersion process

Yuping Wang

doi:10.1016/j.apm.2026.117250

Stress degradation modeling and reliability analysis of flight-vehicle folding wings based on Tweedie exponential dispersion process

2026-08-13

0

PRE

AI

Y

Yuping Wang

J

Jikang Su

B

Bao Lei

X

Xianzhen Huang *

T

Tianqi Sun

P

Peilong Li

DOI：10.1016/j.apm.2026.117250

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Abstract

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• FEA-informed test design identified critical surface-stress hot spots and guided strain-gauge placement. • A TED–MC–BS framework mapped stress–displacement data to the FHD distribution and reliability. • Robust MLE was achieved using an explicit SPA likelihood with a dual-branch reparameterization strategy. • Fine-grid first-passage inference quantified conditional remaining displacement under discrete displacement measurements.

Keywords:

Reliability analysis

Tweedie exponential dispersion process

flight-vehicle folding wings

Saddle point approximation

Birnbaum–Saunders distribution

Stress degradation modeling and reliability analysis of flight-vehicle folding wings based on Tweedie exponential dispersion process

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