Sustained decrease in snowfall over the Tibetan Plateau under a changing climate

Sichen Lin

doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105602

Sustained decrease in snowfall over the Tibetan Plateau under a changing climate

2026-07-01

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DOI：10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105602

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The Tibetan Plateau (TP), also known as the Third Pole and Asian Water Tower, is experiencing amplified warming under global change, reshaping precipitation phase dynamics. Here, we used the high-resolution Third Pole Meteorological Forcing Dataset and a multi-parameter wet-bulb temperature-based scheme to analyze precipitation phase changes over the TP and associated teleconnection responses during the period 1979-2023. Our data indicate a robust solid-to-liquid transition: total precipitation increased at a rate of 0.94 mm/yr (p < 0.01), driven by increased rainfall (1.45 mm/yr, p < 0.01); meanwhile, snowfall declined significantly (-0.51 mm/yr, p <0.01) giving a synchronous snowfall-to-precipitation ratio reduction of-0.13 percentage points per year (p < 0.01). Spatially, snowfall decreased across wide areas at mid-to-high elevations, while rainfall increased on the central/northeastern TP and decreased on the southeastern plateau margin. Summer recorded both the strongest snowfall decline and rainfall increase. Large-scale teleconnections exerted asymmetric effects: the Pacific Decadal Oscillation was a key modulator on the annual scale, with negative phases favoring rainfall and positive phases enhancing snowfall. These findings highlight the hydrological vulnerability of the TP to warming and provide critical insights for regional water resource management.

Keywords:

Tibetan Plateau

Precipitation phase transition

Snow-to-rain shift

Climatic teleconnections

Sustained decrease in snowfall over the Tibetan Plateau under a changing climate

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