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Svalbard's Deterrence Gap
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DOI：10.1080/00396338.2026.2620293.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
The location of Norway's Svalbard archipelago affords it strategic significance. The islands lie within the perimeter of Russia's bastion defence in the European Arctic. Moscow itself has framed the archipelago as a contested frontier between Russia and the West, and Russia as a besieged fortress and victim of NATO's 'aggressive' policies. While the risk of Russian military action against Svalbard is low, a severe crisis or direct NATO-Russia conflict - particularly one in which Russia felt compelled to secure the defensive perimeter of its bastion to neutralise threats to the Northern Fleet - could substantially elevate the likelihood of military confrontation over Svalbard. To bolster deterrence, NATO could enhance its maritime presence in adjacent waters while Norway strengthens its naval and coastguard capabilities. NATO and Norway could also publicly reinforce the unequivocal applicability of the North Atlantic Treaty's Article 5 to Svalbard, and develop contingency plans for anti-access and area-denial scenarios and rapid reinforcement.
Keywords:
Arctic
ballistic-missile submarines
Bear Gap
GIUK Gap
High North
NATO
Northern Fleet
Norway
Russia
Svalbard
United States