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Temporal Dynamics of Gross Primary Productivity in India: From Historical to High Emission Scenarios
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DOI：10.1002/joc.70490.png)
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Abstract
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Understanding how terrestrial primary productivity responds to climate change is essential for regional carbon budgeting and climate adaptation planning. This study investigated historical (1985–2014) and future (2015–2100) changes in Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) over India using biogeochemically coupled Earth system models (ESMs) from CMIP6, together with a comparative assessment of CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations under high-emission scenarios. Model projections are evaluated in the context of climatic variability, land-cover changes and biosphere–climate interactions. Results indicate a robust increase in annual GPP over India during the historical period, with continued enhancement under the SSP5–8.5 scenario. CMIP6 projects substantially stronger future GPP increases than CMIP5, with future GPP trends up to ~2.5 times the historical trend magnitude over the country. Spatially, the largest increases occur over the Indo-Gangetic Plain, Northeastern India and the Western Ghats region. These modelled trends are broadly consistent with observed increases in forest and crop cover. However, CMIP models generally underestimate the magnitude of GPP relative to flux tower and satellite-based estimates. A comparison between CMIP5 and CMIP6 indicates that CMIP6 multimodel average (MMA) projections show stronger GPP trends than CMIP5, particularly after mid-century. However, improvements in the strength of the climate–GPP correlation are not statistically significant. The enhanced GPP trends projected by CMIP6 appear to be linked to stronger precipitation increases together with coupled CO2 fertilisation effects. Spatial attribution analyses suggest a moderate coupling between increasing rainfall and increasing GPP, particularly across semi-arid and water-limited ecosystems. Detrended analyses further suggest that higher rainfall years generally enhance productivity, whereas higher temperature years suppress GPP through heat and moisture stress. However, partial correlation and regression analyses reveal substantially weaker climate–GPP relationships after detrending, indicating a strong influence of shared long-term forcing. Overall, the study demonstrates that long-term greening over India appears to be associated with combined CO2 fertilisation and enhanced precipitation trends. In contrast, regional rainfall anomalies and temperature-related stress responses modulate interannual variability in productivity. These findings highlight the importance of accurately representing hydroclimatic processes and biosphere–atmosphere interactions in projecting future terrestrial productivity over monsoon-dominated regions.
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