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The changing seasonality of mixed layer temperature in the Arctic shelf seas in response to surface heat flux forcing
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DOI：10.1016/j.ocemod.2026.102799.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
This study provides the first integrated assessment of the interannual variability, long-term trend, and seasonality of upper ocean temperature across seven Arctic shelf seas over 1995-2022, using an eddy-permitting global coupled ocean-sea ice model (eORCA025) based on the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) framework. The modelled results are evaluated against observations (NOAA OISSTv2 and ARMOR3D) and the ensemble mean of reanalysis products (GLORYS2V4, ORAS5, C-GLORSv7). While confirming previously reported warming in the Barents, Kara, and Laptev Seas associated with Arctic Atlantification, our analysis reveals a new and critical feature of Arctic change – an amplified seasonal cycle of mixed layer temperature (MLT) that is much more pronounced than mean annual warming in the interior shelf seas (East Siberian, Laptev, and Kara Seas). A mixed layer heat budget analysis shows that this amplified seasonality is primarily driven by enhanced surface heat flux forcing, with a secondary contribution from horizontal oceanic heat advection and minimal influence from vertical entrainment. This suggests a greater role of atmospheric drivers than oceanic drivers in modulating the seasonality change in the shelf seas. The extremes of the MLT seasonal cycle are governed by anomalies in summer solar heating and subsequent nonsolar heat loss in the fall. This model study identifies intensifying thermal seasonality and quantifies its underlying drivers, providing crucial insights for assessing their implications on the Arctic marine systems.
Keywords:
Arctic shelf seas
mixed layer temperature
seasonality
heat budget analysis
heat flux forcing
Ocean modelling
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