The geopolitics of decarbonization: How changing international relations reshape the European Union's sustainability transition

2026-08-11

Christoph P. Kiefer

DOI：10.1016/j.erss.2026.104910

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The European Union (EU) has established ambitious decarbonization policies to achieve net-zero emissions. After considerable progress in the renewable electricity sector, policy makers have increasingly shifted their focus to broader socio-economic production and consumption systems. Consequently, policies have been introduced, for example, for the Circular Economy (CE) as a sustainable model for economic and societal development. This has significantly increased the complexity and thematic diversity of EU sustainability policies. At the same time, policy making is affected by changes in how countries coordinate internationally. The growing pursuit of national interests has introduced a competitive element into decarbonization. For instance, export restrictions on critical raw materials (CRMs) and ambitions for cleantech leadership have intensified geopolitical competition, potentially complicating global climate and CE coordination. This paper examines how evolving international relations and geopolitics affect EU policy making for sustainability and CE transitions. Furthermore, it assesses the resulting interactions in the form of synergies and conflicts within changing policy mixes and develops policy recommendations. Methodologically, this study combines a systematic literature review with qualitative data analysis. The findings reveal strong but heterogeneous interactions. External CRM supply risks act as catalysts for CE implementation by reducing dependence on both externally supplied and virgin resources. However, conflicts emerge between an ideal global CE and more localized CE versions aimed at strategic autonomy. The tension between global climate coordination and national cleantech leadership appears less pronounced, as leadership strategies still require a baseline level of international coordination. Overall, increasing geopolitical competition may significantly reshape, but not completely replace established sustainability-related policy making and policy mixes.

Keywords:

Sustainability transition

Circular Economy

Critical raw materials

Policy mix

Synergies and conflicts

Trade-offs

Geopolitics

Strategic autonomy

The geopolitics of decarbonization: How changing international relations reshape the European Union's sustainability transition

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