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The impact of forest tenure reform on timber supply expansion: evidence from China
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DOI：10.3389/ffgc.2026.1882119.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
Against the backdrop of rising uncertainty in global timber supply and increasing volatility in international timber prices; understanding whether and how property-rights reforms can stimulate timber supply growth is of both theoretical and policy importance. Using provincial panel data from China for the period 2000–2022; this study employs a double machine learning approach to examine the impact of the New Round of Collective Forest Tenure Reform (NRCFTR) on domestic timber supply expansion. The results show that the NRCFTR significantly increases domestic timber supply; and this finding remains robust across a series of tests. Mechanism analysis indicates that the NRCFTR promotes timber supply expansion by facilitating scaled forestland management; optimizing labor allocation; and encouraging diversified capital investment; thereby improving the allocation efficiency of forestry production factors. Heterogeneity analysis further reveals that the positive effect of the NRCFTR is more pronounced in regions with lower rural household income; southern collective forest regions; and early reform pilot areas. Further analysis shows that the NRCFTR not only expands domestic timber supply but also reduces dependence on timber imports and mitigates imported timber price volatility; suggesting that its policy effects extend beyond output growth to the enhancement of timber security. This study provides empirical evidence on the resource-supply effects of forestry property-rights reform and offers policy implications for deepening collective forest tenure reform; strengthening domestic timber supply capacity; and safeguarding national timber security.
Keywords:
timber supply
double machine learning
factor allocation
property-rights institutions
timber security
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373
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