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The Skills for a Just Transition: Cognitive Human Capital and SDG Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa
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DOI：10.1002/sd.71523.png)
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Abstract
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Achieving a just transition toward sustainable development requires not only technological change and financial investment but also the human capabilities needed to support inclusive structural transformation. This study examines the role of cognitive human capital, measured as skills rather than schooling quantity, in shaping Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) performance in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Using an unbalanced panel of 45 SSA countries from 2000 to 2022, the analysis combines Cross-Sectionally Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag (CS-ARDL), Dynamic Common Correlated Effects Mean Group (DCCE-MG), and dynamic panel quantile regression models to address cross-sectional dependence, parameter heterogeneity, and distributional heterogeneity. Results indicate that cognitive human capital is positively associated with long-run SDG performance, with stronger associations for the social and economic dimensions than for environmental outcomes. Short-run associations are weak, reflecting the gradual evolution of cognitive skills and SDG progress. Quantile estimates further indicate relatively stronger associations among lower-performing countries, a pattern consistent with convergence-supporting dynamics and the distributive dimension of a just transition. Additional analysis shows stronger associations in countries with higher institutional quality, underscoring the importance of governance in translating human capabilities into sustainable development outcomes. Robustness checks confirm the stability of the findings. Given the observational nature of the macro-panel data, the results should be interpreted as robust long-run associations rather than definitive causal effects. Overall, the study contributes to just transition theory by highlighting cognitive capabilities as an enabling condition for more equitable and sustainable development.
Keywords:
cognitive human capital
distributional effects
just transition
panel data
skills quality
Sub-Saharan Africa
sustainable development goals
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