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Towards a ground motion model for Croatia
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DOI：10.1007/s10518-026-02633-3.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
Accurate seismic hazard assessment requires region-specific ground motion models. Croatia currently lacks a comprehensive, regionally calibrated spectral Ground Motion Model (GMM) covering a wide range of magnitudes, distances, and site conditions. The 2020 Croatian earthquakes highlighted critical gaps in instrumental network coverage and the absence of a regional GMM. Because strong-motion data for high-magnitude events remain too sparse to develop empirical model, this study presents a new stochastic Ground Motion Model for Croatia (CRO-GMM). The model is developed using point-source and finite-source modelling calibrated with region-specific seismological parameters - stress drop, frequency-dependent quality factors Q(f), and the high-frequency attenuation parameter kappa (κ) derived primarily from regional weak-motion records. The model utilises 69,120 earthquake scenarios simulated across moment magnitudes 4.5–7.1, distances of 1–160 km, focal depths of 8–18 km, and frequencies of 0.3–100 Hz (periods 0.01–3 s), accounting for variations across regional tectonic zones: the transition of the Pannonian Basin toward the Internal and External Dinarides and the Southern Dinarides. The resulting GMM, applicable to rock conditions, is integrated with a nonlinear site amplification model for Croatia. Validation against European and global GMMs shows that CRO-GMM performs comparably to established benchmarks while better capturing local seismotectonic characteristics. Comparison with recorded strong motions from the Ston (1996, Mw6.0), Zagreb (2020, Mw5.4), and Petrinja (2020, Mw6.4) earthquakes demonstrates reasonable agreement within ± 2σ uncertainty bounds. The model provides an essential tool for advanced probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and engineering design in Croatia. Future validation using an expanded Croatian strong-motion database will be essential for further refinement and evaluation of model performance for a variety of local site conditions.
Keywords:
Croatia
Strong motion
GMM
Stochastic simulations
Seismic hazard
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