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Tracing the sustainability trajectory of health and well-being in Central, South, and Southwest Asia Nexus through spatiotemporal assessment and future scenario
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DOI：10.1007/s10668-026-07961-7.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
This study examines the interaction between socio-economic development and health outcomes by tracing the sustainability trajectory in health and well-being (SDG3) across 12 countries in Central, South, and Southwest Asia Nexus (CASX) from 2000 to 2024, with scenarios projected to 2030. Employing a data-driven framework aligned with UN indicators, we developed a composite index to assess progress. The results reveal a substantial 37.1% increase in the regional mean index value from 2000 to 2024, surpassing absolute Asian and global averages. Spatially, the geographic center of high performance shifted from southern to central-northern parts of CASX. Analysis of regional inequality, measured by a declining Gini coefficient (0.0999 to 0.0738), indicates that disparities were primarily driven by differences between sub-regions rather than between nations. Projections generated by a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network for 2025–2030 suggest divergent national pathways, identifying three countries (Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan) on a trajectory of sustained progress and nine others (e.g., Afghanistan, Nepal) facing potential stagnation or decline. This integrated assessment highlights both achievements and persistent inequities in the region’s health sustainability trajectory, providing a replicable framework and evidence base for informing policies aimed at achieving equitable and sustainable development.
Keywords:
Sustainable development goals
Spatiotemporal analysis
Regional inequality
Health and development nexus
Evaluation and forecasting models
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