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Tracking country-level mitigation progress using NGHGI-consistent carbon budgets
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DOI：10.1038/s41467-026-69078-9.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
The remaining carbon budget (RCB) of countries provides a benchmark for evaluating national mitigation efforts and was central to a recent European Court of Human Rights’ ruling. However, estimates of national RCBs are inconsistent with CO2 accounting in national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs). Here, we align RCBs with NGHGI accounting standards. For 2024, NGHGI alignment reduces the 1.5 °C (50%) global RCB by ~100 GtCO2 ( ≈ 50%) and the 2 °C (66%) RCB by ~200 GtCO2 ( ≈ 20%). Thus, we estimate the 1.5 °C (50%) NGHGI-consistent global RCB to be depleted by 2027. We provide NGHGI-consistent national RCBs for common allocation methods and most countries. Following Paris Agreement equity principles, we find that by 2025, 64–85 countries could have exceeded their fair-share RCB for 1.5 °C (50%). While national RCBs depend on normative choices and are unlikely to directly drive negotiations, our framework enables more methodologically robust RCB calculations to track country-level mitigation progress. This study shows that aligning remaining carbon budgets with national greenhouse gas inventory accounting reduces the global 1.5 ∘C (50%) budget by ~100 GtCO2, with possible depletion around 2027, and suggests that 64-85 countries could have exceeded their fair share by 2025.
Keywords:
Climate change
Climate-change mitigation
Climate-change policy
Social sciences
Science
Humanities and Social Sciences
multidisciplinary
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