.png){kind=icon}
.png){kind=icon}
Return
Trade deficit responses to energy price shocks, renewable energy adoption, and exchange rate fluctuations in Tunisia: evidence from linear and nonlinear ARDL analysis
.png){kind=icon}
PRE
AI
M
DOI：10.1080/15567249.2026.2629839.png)
.png){kind=icon}
Original request for help.png){kind=icon}
Share.png){kind=icon}
Save
Abstract
En 中文
This paper investigates how global fossil fuel price shocks, renewable energy (RE) adoption, and exchange rate fluctuations shape Tunisia's trade deficit (TD). Using annual data for 1980-2023 and both linear and nonlinear ARDL frameworks, the analysis shows that oil price changes exert symmetric effects: increases deteriorate the TD, while declines improve it. By contrast, natural gas price shocks display asymmetric magnitude, with both increases and decreases reducing the TD, although price decreases generate substantially larger adjustments. This asymmetry reflects the institutional rigidities - including subsidies and long-term import contracts - that limit Tunisia's response to global gas price movements. RE adoption, still at an early stage and heavily dependent on imported technologies, currently contributes to widening the TD, a finding consistent with the RE threshold hypothesis. In addition, the prolonged depreciation of the domestic currency fails to improve external balances and instead aggravates the deficit, reflecting low export elasticities and structural dependence on energy imports. These findings highlight the importance of strengthening domestic RE manufacturing capacity, expanding green finance to support clean-energy investment, and implementing gradual energy-pricing reforms to reduce external vulnerability while advancing Tunisia's energy transition.
Keywords:
ARDL
exchange rate
NARDL
oil and gas price shocks
renewable energy
Trade deficit
Tunisia
Journal
IF:
2.2
Papers:
1.1K
Citations:
1.5K
Organization
Cited Papers