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Universal Gravity
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DOI：10.1086/704385.png)
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Abstract
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We study the theoretical properties and counterfactual predictions of a large class of general equilibrium trade and economic geography models. By combining aggregate factor supply and demand functions with market-clearing conditions, we prove that existence, uniqueness, and-given observed trade flows-the counterfactual predictions of any model within this class depend only on the demand and supply elasticities (gravity constants). Using a new model-implied instrumental variables approach, we estimate these gravity constants and use these estimates to compute the impact of a trade war between the United States and China.
Keywords:
GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM
TRADE MODELS
WELFARE
EXISTENCE
DEMAND
IMPACT
INCOME
GOODS
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