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Unsustainable oasis greening driven by cropland expansion in an inland river basin of Northwest China
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DOI：10.1186/s40562-026-00483-0.png)
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Abstract
En 中文
Vegetation greening is increasingly common in arid inland river basins; however, its complex spatiotemporal patterns and underlying causal mechanisms remain unclear. This study focuses on the Shiyang River Basin (SRB), a typical arid inland river basin in Northwest China. Using long-term remote sensing and environmental data from 2000 to 2020, this study integrates the Space-Time Cube model, Emerging Hot Spot Analysis, GeoDetector, and Structural Equation Model to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution patterns, spatial differentiation characteristics, and underlying causal mechanisms of fractional vegetation cover (FVC). The results indicate that over the past two decades, vegetation in the SRB has exhibited a significant greening trend characterized by 15 distinct spatiotemporal patterns. The intensification of FVC hotspots in the middle and lower oasis regions is highly spatially coupled with cropland expansion. Land-use change (primarily cropland expansion) has overridden natural factors, such as climate and topography, to become the primary driver of FVC spatial heterogeneity. The fundamental causal mechanisms driving vegetation greening have shifted from a hydrology-supported regime to one dominated by intensive human agricultural and economic activities. This vegetation greening, driven by cropland expansion, substantially increases regional evapotranspiration and further exacerbates groundwater depletion. This study exposes the water resource pressures underlying “agricultural expansion-driven greening” in arid oasis regions, highlights the importance of rational water resource management and agricultural planning to ensure regional water, food, and ecological security, and offers valuable insights for the sustainable development of these regions.
Keywords:
Vegetation evolution patterns
Cropland expansion
Space-time cube
Arid inland river basin
Structural equation modeling
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