Urban expansion simulation with an explainable ensemble deep learning framework

Yue Zhu

doi:10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e28318

Urban expansion simulation with an explainable ensemble deep learning framework

2024-04-01

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DOI：10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e28318

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Urban expansion simulation is of significant importance to land management and policymaking. Advances in deep learning facilitate capturing and anticipating urban land dynamics with stateof-the-art accuracy properties. In this context, a novel deep learning-based ensemble framework was proposed for urban expansion simulation at an intra-urban granular level. The ensemble framework comprises i) multiple deep learning models as encoders, using transformers for encoding multi-temporal spatial features and convolutional layers for processing single-temporal spatial features, ii) a tailored channel-wise attention module to address the challenge of limited interpretability in deep learning methods. The channel attention module enables the examination of the rationality of feature importance, thereby establishing confidence in the simulated results. The proposed method accurately anticipated urban expansion in Shenzhen, China, and it outperformed all the baseline methods in terms of both spatial accuracy and temporal consistency.

Keywords:

Urban expansion simulation

Deep learning

Machine learning

Ensemble framework

Spatial modeling

Urban expansion simulation with an explainable ensemble deep learning framework

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