Using Age-Specific Rates for Parametric Survival Function Estimation in Simulation Models

doi:10.1177/0272989X241232967

Using Age-Specific Rates for Parametric Survival Function Estimation in Simulation Models

2024-02-25

1

PRE

AI

A

Arantzazu Arrospide *

Fernando Alarid‐Escudero

J

Javier Mar

DOI：10.1177/0272989X241232967

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Abstract

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Purpose To describe a procedure for incorporating parametric functions into individual-level simulation models to sample time to event when age-specific rates are available but not the individual data.Methods Using age-specific event rates, regression analysis was used to parametrize parametric survival distributions (Weibull, Gompertz, log-normal, and log-logistic), select the best fit using the R2 statistic, and apply the corresponding formula to assign random times to events in simulation models. We used stroke rates in the Spanish population to illustrate our procedure.Results The 3 selected survival functions (Gompertz, Weibull, and log-normal) had a good fit to the data up to 85 y of age. We selected Gompertz distribution as the best-fitting distribution due to its goodness of fit.Conclusions Our work provides a simple procedure for incorporating parametric risk functions into simulation models without individual-level data.

Keywords:

simulation

survival analyses

uncertainty

natural history

health economics

Using Age-Specific Rates for Parametric Survival Function Estimation in Simulation Models

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